The 3 Sources of a Nation's Power
Michael Beckley on America's positioning in the 21st century and the beginning of a comparative analysis between geopolitical power sources and corporate power sources
Abraham Lincoln said that the three sources of a nation’s power are her land, laws, and people. According to Michael Beckley, author of Unrivaled, Lincoln was right.
Geopolitics has long fascinated me for reasons that I’ve only recently been able to describe coherently:
First, geopolitics explain the drivers of human drama without indulging in great man theories.
Second, geopolitics plays a macro role, serving to unify and contextualize the chaos of multiple micro disciplines (e.g. geography, economics, and politics). Navigable river trade is interesting, but it’s even more interesting when paired with an understanding of interstate commerce laws and citizen educational attainment.
Third, the study of what makes nations strong or weak is relevant and analagous to the study of what makes companies strong or weak.
Fourth, as someone born in the United States, just before the dissolution of the Soviet Union, my lived experience is that of history’s end and America's unipolarity, and I’m concerned about how America’s role in the world will evolve throughout my lifetime.
On this last point, I’ve often thought of the generation to which I belong (Millennial) as the Disneyfied children of the 90’s, born into a world of immense relative wealth, no legitimate external threat, and with all the encouragement of the surrounding culture to be heroic individual difference makers.
From the animated films of our youth (e.g. Lion King and Toy Story), we were introduced to the Hero’s journey
And from the major motion, every man, pictures of the Hanks’ and Costners (e.g. Forest Gump, Field of Dreams, Philadelphia, Dances with Wolves, Saving Private Ryan), we were introduced to two ideas: 1) that America’s achievement of liberal values was hard-contested and never inevitable; and 2) that it was now our responsibility to carry forth the values of this singular nation.
What are the sources of American power? And how do the sources of geopolitical power compare to the sources of business power?
This post will address the first question. I’ll address the second question in a follow-up post.
When History Began Again
9/11 shattered the glass bubble of the 90’s. For millennials, the world came into view — chaotic, massive, uncontrollable, anti-American. We’ve known, albeit at an economic distance given we haven’t raised wartime taxes, constant war ever since. When we came of age, we entered the workforce in the aftermath of the deepest recession since the 1930’s. And as the country tried to prevent depression, we became sophomores in the very weird combined age of:
Industry that was too big to fail
The digitization of everything, as software kept devouring the world
On top of all of this, the elections of Barack Obama and Donald Trump have served as exemplars of domestic polarization that has led many of us to wonder whether our institutions are capable of effectively serving us in a 21st century world.
In light of the weirdness of our lived experience — born at Fukuyama’s end of history, and then teenaged and come-of -aged when history began sharply again, our experience is that of unipolarity abroad and bipolarity at home. Externally, the US remains the clear global hegemon. Internally, we live within two economies (tech and non-tech) and two moralities (rural and urban (an idea I'd like to write about more in a future post)).
America, Unrivaled
In his book Unrivaled, Beckley offers one of the most lucid geopolitical explanations of the sources of America’s power.
His book is about the history of great power politics over the last 500 years, new methods for measuring power, long-term trends in power balancing, and predicting the rise and fall of nations. Mostly, though, it’s an analysis of America’s land, laws, and people, and the extent to which these three power sources, so keenly observed by Lincoln, will shape our collective future in the 21st century.
Beckley argues that the U.S. has unique strategic advantages that if well-used, will allow it to remain the world’s hegemon through the next 100 years.
Land
From the standpoint of land, the U.S. is not only remote from other great powers, but its geography provides it with a number of natural advantages that no other competing power can match.
Of note, Beckley spends little time discussing America’s arable land and freshwater resources, of which there are many. I was surprised by how lightly agricultural advantages were addressed, given history teaches us that famine has been responsible for more great power decline than war.
People
From the standpoint of people, the U.S. enjoys a large and young population compared to other world powers, as well as a population that is generally healthier and exposed to a greater quantity of total education.
Of note, Beckley asks, “how can the US have the most productive workforce in the world when it has a mediocre primary and secondary education system?"
He posits 3 answers: "1) the US enjoys other economic advantages (e.g. excellent geography and business-friendly legal system) that compensates for educational shortcomings; 2) what it lacks in quality, it makes up for in quantify; and 3) the US poaches human capital from other countries."
Law
From the standpoint of law, U.S. institutions are slightly less effective than western Europe and Japan as measured by capacity and accountability, but significantly ahead of direct rivals like China and Russia.
Of note, Beckley describes the irony of the American system. “Out of fear of big government, Americans have created a system that entrusts unelected courts, congressional committees, and interest groups to carry out governmental functions… The power of courts and special interest groups produces excessive litigation with thousands of giveaways to the special interest groups.”
Given the most influential interest groups are typically representing the wealthiest people, critics don’t view America’s interest groups as representative of a beneficial, pluralist competition that produces sound policy, and instead as kleptocracy (e.g. rigged by elites).
How do the sources of geopolitical power compare to the sources of business power?
I'll explore this question in my next post.
Nice writeup! Have you read Ray Dalio's recent pieces about the Changing World Order (https://www.principles.com/the-changing-world-order/)? Dalio argues for the relative decline of the US relative to China. He has his own set of factors for measuring a country's power, less geographically focused and more economically focused as you'd expect. China is improving in aspects such as education, innovation and technology, etc that are leading indicators and the population is so much bigger, while the US has been trending downwards relatively.